中国轮值G20主席国，将对世界有何影响?

二十国集团(G20)杭州峰会将于9月召开。在这一平台上，发达国家和发展中国家将作为平等伙伴，就如何应对全球经济挑战、改善全球经济治理、加速世界经济发展进行探讨和合作。世界舆论普遍认为，作为本届峰会的东道国和世界第二大经济体，中国有能力确保这次峰会的成功，并为世界经济的振兴作出重要贡献。

The G20 summit to be held in the Chinese city of Hangzhou in early September is unlike any previous one: it will be hosted by the largest developing country in the world. But a key question remains: can China succeed in shaking the world's 20 biggest economies out of their torpor?

二十国集团(G20)峰会将于九月初在中国杭州举行。与过去历届峰会不同，此次峰会将由世界上最大的发展中国家主办。但关键问题是：中国能否让世界20大经济体复苏?

China has high hopes for chairing a successful G20 summit, the country's biggest diplomatic event of the year. Plenty is already on the table, including a Beijing-led push to upgrade the G20 from a crisis response mechanism to a long-term governance platform.

G20峰会是中国年度外交盛事，而中国也非常有信心能成功举办此次峰会。许多话题已经引起了热议，其中包括中国提出的推动G20从危机应对向长效治理机制转型。

The economic weight and growing agility of China in managing international affairs, experts say, would prove advantageous in getting things done at the forum, particularly in bringing major industrialized economies as well as emerging markets together to tackle the root causes of faltering global growth.

专家表示，中国处理国际事务的灵活性不断提高，加上如今的国际经济地位，将有利于推动峰会成果的达成，特别是将主要的工业经济体以及新兴市场团结起来，共同从根源上解决世界经济增长乏力的问题。

Long-term governance

长效治理

The G20 mechanism, as a primary platform for international economic cooperation, has long focused on coordinating monetary and fiscal policies among the world's top developed and developing nations in response to global financial crises.

G20机制是一个国际经济合作的主要平台，一直致力于协调世界主要发达国家与发展中国家的货币和财政政策，以应对全球金融危机。

But after eight years of slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, an urgency can be felt across G20 members for collective action on more fundamental aspects of the global economy.

但自2008年金融危机爆发以来，世界经济复苏缓慢。因此，G20成员认为各国必须在全球经济更重大的领域中进行合作。

A highlight of the upcoming summit will be developing a G20 blueprint for innovative growth, which includes a concrete action plan for building a new industrial revolution and the digital economy.

此次G20峰会的一大亮点就是制定G20创新增长蓝图，包括建设新工业革命和数字经济的具体行动计划。

"It is the first G20 summit with a focus on the long-term impetus of global growth," said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a briefing late May.

中国外交部长王毅在五月底的一个中外媒体吹风会上表示：“这是G20首次聚焦全球经济增长的中长期动力。”

"Fiscal and monetary policies can only serve as countercyclical tools that help smooth out volatility in the short term," said Professor Zhu Jiejin of Fudan University. "It's just like medicine. It may cure an illness, but does not strengthen the health of an economy."

“财政和货币政策只能作为一种反周期的工具，在短期内缓解经济波动”，复旦大学教授朱杰金说道，“就像是药物一样，它能缓解病情，却不能增强体质。”

Zhu said the consensus on innovation had been a hard-won achievement under the Chinese presidency, especially given the severe market volatility in the first quarter of 2024.

朱教授表示，2024年第一季度的市场波动极大，而中国作为G20轮值主席国，能促进各国在创新方面达成一致，这实属不易。

"It is not easy for China to stay focused on a long-term agenda when some are calling for short-term stimulus packages," Zhu said.

“一些国家谋求短期内的经济刺激计划，因此中国要聚焦在长期议题上并不容易”，朱教授说道。

Swiss Finance Minister Ueli Maurer underlined China's emphasis on fostering innovation and other structural reforms, which, he said, were important to raise productivity and ensure the quality and sustainability of growth.

瑞士财政部长于利•毛雷尔强调，中国将重点放在了推动创新和其他结构性改革上。他表示，这对于提高生产力和确保高质量、可持续的增长是非常重要的。

"In this respect, the G20 Blueprint on Innovative Growth represents an ambitious agenda toward a new paradigm for growth based on knowledge and on new and cleaner technologies," he told Xinhua. "Many countries have, since the global financial crisis of 2008/09, relied too heavily on monetary and fiscal easing,"

“而在这方面，《G20创新增长蓝图》体现了以知识和新洁净科技为基础的增长模式的转变，这是一个非常宏伟的目标”，他向新华社记者表示，“自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来，许多国家都过于依赖货币和财政宽松政策了。”

Another eye-catching item on the agenda is going to be outlining steps to implement the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the first time development is being given priority in a global macro-policy framework.

峰会日程上的另一个亮点议题就是制定计划以实施联合国《2030年可持续发展议程》，发展问题首次在全球宏观政策框架占据了突出位置。

Huang Wei, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that "developed countries cannot thrive alone in this increasingly interconnected world. Developed and developing countries need to pool their resources to reverse sagging global growth."

中国社科院研究员黄薇表示：“在这个各国联系日益紧密的世界里，发达国家仅凭借一己之力是无法繁荣的。发达国家和发展中国家需要进行资源共享，才能扭转全球经济增速放缓的困境。”

Huang noted the systematic nature of implementing the United Nations development goals, which incorporate social and environmental dimensions as well as growth. "Only with a holistic approach can we solve fundamental problems in the global economy," she told Xinhua. "The G20 used to deal with only specific problems."

黄薇还表示，实施联合国可持续发展议程是一个系统的过程，包括社会、环境和发展等方面。“我们只能用一个整体的方案来解决全球经济的重大问题”，她对新华社记者说道，“过去，G20峰会仅仅是解决某些特定的问题。”

According to Chen Fengying, a researcher with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, the G20 has expanded its main policy goal for strong, sustainable and balanced growth that was laid down at the Pittsburgh summit in 2009. "It is not easy for China to host a fruitful summit when there is no apparent crisis," she said. "But China has made an unprecedented contribution to the G20 by charting out a new future."

中国现代国际关系研究院的研究员陈凤英表示，为了实现2009年匹兹堡峰会上提出的 “强劲、可持续和平衡增长”目标 ，G20已进一步增加了其主要政策目标。“目前，经济危机的迹象不明显，中国要保证这次的G20峰会取得丰富成果并非易事”，陈凤英说道，“但中国为G20绘就了发展新蓝图，作出了前所未有的贡献。”

Moreover, amid sluggish trade and weak investment, the G20 under China's presidency this year opened up a new and more substantive avenue for stimulating growth: a trade ministers meeting to promote international trade and investment.

而且，在全球贸易和投资增长乏力之际，中国作为G20轮值主席国，在今年开辟了全新的、更具实质性的渠道——举办旨在促进全球贸易投资增长的贸易部长会议，以刺激经济增长。

"We cracked some real issues, because China took the initiative of setting up the trade and investment working group and put in lots of work, which has been very productive," said Rita Teaotia, commerce secretary of the Indian Department of Commerce.

印度商务部部长丽塔•蒂奥乌沙表示：“由于中国首创了G20贸易投资工作组，并开展了许多富有成效的工作，我们才得以解决了一些棘手的问题。”

"From the Hangzhou summit onward," said Chen, "there will be two wheels driving the G20, with the traditional finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, and the new mechanism of trade ministers' meeting."

陈凤英说：“杭州G20峰会召开后，两个‘轮子’将助力推动G20峰会的展开，那就是传统的财长会议和央行行长会议以及新引入的贸易部长会议机制。”

This could be one of the biggest breakthroughs at this year's summit. Many of the long-term structural problems in the global economy have to do with trade and investment, she said.

“这可能会成为今年杭州G20峰会最大的突破之一。全球经济中许多长期结构性问题都与贸易和投资相关，”她说。

Shaping the agenda

完善峰会议程

At this year's G20 summit, China will also be playing a more prominent role in international affairs.

在今年的G20峰会上，中国将会在国际事务中发挥更突出的作用。

"This will be the first time that China hosts a global economic governance summit, unlike chairing regional meetings such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation," said Chen. "It is a good opportunity for China to exercise its power in global economics."

“这是中国首次举办商讨全球经济治理的峰会，这与举行亚太经合组织会议等区域性会议不一样”，陈凤英说，“这是中国在世界经济中展示力量的好时机。”

She explained that because the G20 is an international forum with no secretariat or enforcing agencies, the outcome of the summit is to a large extent determined by the will of the host country.

她解释道，G20作为一个国际论坛，没有常设的秘书处，也没有执行机构。所以，G20峰会能取得什么样的成果很大程度上取决于主办国。

"As a big country, China has the influence to push for specific goals, especially when they coincide with the interests of other countries," she said, praising China's concrete action plans in the context of vaguer pledges of past years.

“作为一个有影响力的大国，中国能够推动达成特定的目标，特别是那些与其他国家的利益相契合的目标，”陈凤英说道。相对于以前定下的相对模糊的承诺，她认为中国制定的具体行动计划确实值得称赞。

Zhu stressed that China, as the biggest developing country, has the responsibility to promote more balanced governance of the global economy.

朱教授强调，中国作为最大的发展中国家，有责任推动建立更加均衡的全球经济治理模式。

"The birth of the G20 has broken the myth of the G7 and allows for the exploration into diverse paths of growth," he said.

“G20打破了G7的旧逻辑，考虑到要探索不同的发展道路，”朱教授说道。

According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund, emerging and developing economies are home to 85 percent of the world's population, accounting for almost 60 percent of global GDP and contributing to more than 80 percent of global growth since the 2008 financial crisis. China alone has contributed 35 percent to global growth in the past five years.

国际货币基金组织的数据显示，新兴经济体以及发展中国家的人口占世界总人口的85%，GDP占比接近全球的60%;自2008年金融危机以来，这些国家对全球经济增长的贡献率超过了80%。过去五年，中国对全球经济增长的贡献率为35%。

The view of China's growing role in global economic governance is widely shared.

“中国在全球经济治理中发挥着越来越重要的作用，这是大家都认同的。

"There is probably some means for building new institutions given the rise of Asia and rise of China," said Tim Harcourt of the University of New South Wales in Australia. "I think in some ways the G20 can play that role."

“随着中国及亚洲的崛起，我们也许能够找到建立新体系的方法，”澳大利亚新南威尔士大学的提姆•哈考特教授说，“我认为在某种程度上，G20就能发挥这样的角色。”

China is now in a position to assert its influence in the management of the global economy, according to a report that was released in March by the London-based Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs. Other countries are ready to learn from China's experiences in transforming its economy, it added.

英国皇家国际事务研究所——伦敦查塔姆研究所3月发布的报告显示，如今中国在全球经济治理中正发挥着自身的影响力。报告还指出，其他国家也非常愿意借鉴中国在经济转型发展中的经验。

带你了解“二十国集团”

对于二十国集团，我们可能听过很多次，但却不一定了解其具体的成员组成以及运行方式。下面，我们就来简要介绍一下。

二十国集团(the Group of Twenty, G20)由19个国家(阿根廷Argentina, 澳大利亚Australia, 巴西Brazil, 加拿大Canada, 中国China, 法国France, 德国Germany, 印度India, 印度尼西亚Indonesia, 意大利Italy, 日本Japan, 韩国South Korea, 墨西哥Mexico, 俄罗斯Russia, 沙特阿拉伯Saudi Arabia, 南非South Africa, 土耳其Turkey, 英国United Kingdom, 美国United States)和欧盟(the European Union)构成，聚集了世界主要发达和新兴经济体的领导人，共同应对全球经济面临的挑战。为保证二十国集团的讨论能够代表众多国家的利益，每年二十国集团的主席都邀请嘉宾国(guest countries)参加包括领导人峰会在内的本年度会议。

二十国集团经济体的领导人每年召开一次会议，而二十国集团的财政部长与央行行长每年会召开数次会议，商讨提振全球经济(strengthen the global economy)、改革全球金融机构(reform international financial institutions)、改进金融规章(improve financial regulation)以及在每个成员经济体实施必要的经济改革(implement the key economic reforms that are needed in each member economy)的方式。

二十国集团经济体第一次会议是在1999年亚洲金融危机(Asian financial crisis)之后，以财政部长与央行行长会议的形式召开的。2008年，二十国集团经济体领导人第一次会议召开， 该组织在应对全球金融危机(responding to the global financial crisis)方面发挥了重要作用。

二十国集团得到各国际组织提供的分析和建议支持，这些组织包括金融稳定委员会(the Financial Stability Board)、国际劳工组织(the International Labour Organisation)、国际货币基金(the International Monetary Fund)、经济合作与发展组织(Economic Co-operation and Development)、联合国(the United Nations)、世界银行(the World Bank)和世界贸易组织(the World Trade Organization)。这些组织的代表受邀参加二十国集团的主要会议。